Congressional candidate Gary DeLong sent out a news release announcing that his opponent in the new 47th Congressional District, Democrat Alan Lowenthal, had refused an invitation from the League of Women Voters for a joint town hall questiona-and-answer session at Cal State Long Beach.
DeLong suggested that campaign staff shuffling might be the reason.
An article by Kyle Trygstad in yesterday’s Roll Call suggests an alternative answer: Lowenthal and his campaign staff don’t think that they need to dangle him out there to allow hostile voters to take chunks out of his hide.
From the article:
The poll of 400 likely voters in the Long Beach- and Orange County-based district was conducted Aug. 16-19. The margin of error was 5 points.
The article provides no link to allow a peek at the poll’s internals. “Likely voters” is stronger than “registered voters” but there’s no way to tell whether the sample was lopsided for Democrats, for instance.
I personally appreciate how visible and accessible Gary DeLong has been to voters on this side of the Orange Curtain.
Alan Lowenthal might as well be The Invisible Man for all the face-time he has spent courting voters at the eastern end of District 47. For example, he did not attend last month’s legislative mixer at Los Alamitos Joint Forces Training Base.
A case could be made that he’s sticking to his base in Long Beach because he doesn’t need to win over voters in Orange County in order to win District 47.
That plays into my original gripe about this district — that it was drawn as a gift to a Democratic candidate by the supposed non-partisan redistricting committee. The small towns in the northwest corner of Orange County will lose their voice in Congress if Mr. Lowenthal is elected.
(Both our U.S. Senators are San Francisco liberals. Little that they support is supported by a majority of voters in northwest Orange County.)
Because of that suspect redistricting, voters in northwest Orange County must be vigilant and active in order to keep any kind of voice at the federal and state levels.
Update: I thought to check what Larry J. Sabato thinks of the California District 47 match-up. His Crystal Ball rates the District as “leans Democratic” along with District 41, another District with no incumbent that includes Riverside, Moreno Valley, March Air Base and Perris.
Update 2: Gary DeLong responds to Alan Lowenthal’s poll results:
Yes it is true that our data is older (late June / early July), but we have a significant phone bank effort currently underway that mirrors the June/July poll.
Additionally, in the June primary the “R” candidates received more votes that the “D” candidates across the entire district, and the “R’s” beat the “D’s” by 17 points in the Orange County portion of the district. It is ludicrous for Lowenthal to suggest he “leads strongly in Orange County”. This statement seriously questions the validity of the Lowenthal poll. Also, the California Target Book has analyzed this new district and determined that in the November 2010 election the “R” candidates received 52% of the vote and the “D” candidates received 48% of the vote.
Alan’s previous poll stated he had a double digit lead over every other candidate going into the primary, and he finished with only 33% of the vote. He misstated the facts then, and he’s misstated them again. Lowenthal lost in June, and he will lose in November.
Part of what DeLong is saying is that the Republican vote was split across candidates during the primary, so Lowenthal’s repeated assertion that he beat DeLong in the primary is misleading.
Again, conservative voters must show up in large numbers to vote in November in order to keep their representation at the federal and state level.
Orange County Breeze readers may be mildly amused to find that the attached memo reports results of a poll conducted by Probolsky Research LLC, the same firm that conducted a survey on behalf of Rossmoor Community Services District.
- Long Beach Police Officers Association endorses Alan Lowenthal (oc-breeze.com)
- Room with a View: A big reason for conservatives in Congressional District 47 to flood the polls in November (oc-breeze.com)
- Former Long Beach Mayor Beverly O’Neill endorses Alan Lowenthal for Congress (oc-breeze.com)
- Congressional candidate DeLong announces debate with opponent Lowenthal (oc-breeze.com)
- New O.C. House seat tilting Democratic (totalbuzz.ocregister.com)