For conservative residents of northwest Orange County still smarting over redistricting that dumped them in a liberal-majority Congressional district that sent Alan Lowenthal (D-CA47) to Washington, D.C., a recent assessment by Alan I. Abramowitz of general prospects for Republican candidates in California made in the context of a 2012 northern California House race is discouraging (emphasis added):
Bad 2012 investment worth ignoring (NRCC): Jerry McNerney (CA-9) — National Republicans explored dislodging several Democratic Golden State incumbents, but they spent the most — nearly $2.5 million — against McNerney, who ended up winning by 11 points. The GOP could once again target California, hoping for a backlash that could win them back some of the four net seats they lost there in 2012, but the Republican brand is just plain lousy in diverse, liberal California.
Conservative activists should tailor their arguments to be favorably heard by today’s electorate — “diverse, liberal California.”
Conservative policy is sound. Supporters of conservative policy need to rework and reword their arguments in support of that policy so that support will grow.
A fortress mentality will not work when the walls have been breached by redistricting.
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- Republicans ALREADY targeting Ami Bera, John Garamendi for 2014 (timesunion.com)
- California’s Hispanic population projected to outnumber white in 2014 (news.yahoo.com)