Where are we on slog uphill against COVID-19?

The COVID Tracking Project provides lots of data on the spread of COVID-19, both nationally and by state.

Jay Boice at FiveThirtyEight looked over the answers of infectious disease experts to a series of questions that will be repeated weekly. His findings suggest that the virus is still spreading, and the slope of the hill (still upwards? how steeply? when will it peak?) is uncertain.

With a handful of days past his original article, we can look at the consensus answer to the first question asked of the experts, and compare that consensus with actual data from the COVID Tracking Project:

Q: What is the smallest, most likely and largest number of total cases that The COVID Tracking Project will report on March 29?

According to Boice:

The consensus forecast suggests there will be around 117,000 cases reported this Sunday, with a 90 percent chance of having between 55,000 and 246,000.

The actual number reported: 141,950.

So the actual number is 20% higher than the consensus, but more than 40% lower than the top of the range.

Bad news, good news.

Stay safe, stay healthy. We should have a better handle by Easter Sunday on whether efforts to flatten the curve have been effective.