After the trauma of Governor Newsom reinstating lockdown, some Californians have taken to watching daily stats as closely as marks watch shells trying to follow which has the pea underneath — pick a favorite individual statistic or group of statistics to divine progress towards the flickering hope of re-opening!
Let’s just say that trust in the State of California (and in Governor Newsom particularly) is at a low ebb.
According to Orange County’s attestation (pdf) requesting a variance to proceed through Stage 2 of the State’s Resiliency Roadmap (dated May 18), the County must meet the following criteria:
- Demonstrated stable/decreasing number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 by a 7-day average of daily percent change in the total number of hospitalized confirmed COVID-19 patients of <+5% -OR- no more than 20 total confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized on any single day over the past 14 days.
- 14-day cumulative COVID-19 positive incidence of <25 per 100,000 -OR- testing positivity over the past 7 days of <8%.
According to the State’s county monitoring page, as of this morning those numbers (over 14 days, not 7 days):
- a decrease of 21.2% of patients hospitalized
- 181.5 new cases per 100,000, testing positivity of 5.4%
You would think, then, that Orange County should be off the dreaded State Monitoring List. There is this cautionary note though:
Due to issues with the state’s electronic laboratory reporting systems, these data represent an underreporting of actual positive cases in one single day.
So… because of the State’s incompetence, Orange County may deserve to be off the dreaded Monitoring List, or it may not.
Likewise all the other Counties.
Since we are suffering under One Man Rule, Governor Newsom could decide on his own and arbitrarily which Counties will continue to be monitored and which will not. “Science” has been overwhelmed by inept governance.
This is another example of executive incompetence at the State level that should be evidence against voting for incumbents in the November election.
Johns Hopkins rating
The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center publishes a table of States (plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico) that meet (or exceed) the threshold set by the World Health Organization for re-opening. That threshold is set at 5% for tests returning a positive result. Therefore, exceeding the threshold is bad.
Visiting that page daily can lead to a fixation on the headline number of States that exceed the threshold. I confess my guilt in this regard.
When Governor Newsom lowered the boom again, California was about in the middle of the approximately 35 States that exceeded the threshold.
This morning, California is the leftmost State in the group exceeding the threshold. At a rate of 5.13%, it is lower than the next State, Ohio at 5.18%, but higher than Delaware at 4.88%.
But remember: California State recording is inaccurate. Nobody knows the real numbers, except maybe Governor Newsom.