featured graphic for Hamilton Place Strategies during COVID-19

Hamilton Place Strategies analyzes State outcomes for COVID-19 responses

With the end of the COVID-19 pandemic seemingly in sight, analyses are now being published about the varied responses by the individual States to the pandemic.

In particular, Hamilton Place Strategies has published a report looking jointly at two important indicators in order to rank States’ pandemic response: job loss and “excess” deaths per capita.

(Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. — per the Centers for Disease control, in Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19.)

A chart included with the report summarizes its findings:

Hamilton Place Strategies chart of State outcomes from COVID-19, excess deaths per capita against job loss per capita. Graphic courtesy of HPS. Emphasis added to make the outcomes for California more easily seen.
Hamilton Place Strategies chart of State outcomes from COVID-19, excess deaths per capita against job loss per capita. Graphic courtesy of HPS. Emphasis added to make the outcomes for California more easily seen.

The horizontal dashed line shows the average number of excess deaths per capita.

The vertial dashed line shows the average job loss per capita.

States in the upper right quadrant faired poorly, their residents suffering both above average job losses and above average excess deaths. New York State residents suffered far and away the worst outcome.

States in the lower right quadrant suffered more from job losses per capita than from excess deaths per capita.

States in the upper left quadrant suffered more from excess deaths per capita than from job losses per capita.

States in the lower left quadrant generally “enjoyed” the best COVID-19 outcomes, with fewer than average job losses and excess deaths per capita.

California fell in the upper right quadrant — its outcome is well below that of New York State, but still well above average in job losses per capita and significantly above average in excess deaths per capita.

That is, despite the severe pandemic restrictions that caused above-average job loss, Californians still suffered above average excess deaths.

The report adds more fuel to the fire behind the effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

(Someone needs to take this chart and color the state abbreviations to indicate the political party of each State’s governor. That would add a third and highly argumentative variable.)