As expected, Gavin Newsom seems to have defeated the recall attempt. (See the latest numbers below the map.) The canvass does not officially end until the election is certified on October 22, but recall supporters are unlikely to prevail at this point.
- Those opposing Gov. Newsom overwhelmingly voted for Larry Elder. The opposition vote did not split across many opposition candidates.
- By an almost 6 to 1 ratio, voters overwhelmingly used mail-in rather than vote in person.
- Not even “conservative stronghold” Orange County voted to recall Newsom, though it wasn’t a blowout.
- Results from the recall election should provide material for thought to strategists for next year’s elections.
- Non-Democrats will continue to face impossible odds in statewide office. They should concentrate their efforts locally, to preserve what is already in hand, recover what was lost, and secure further gains. Chipping away at the supermajority held by Democrats in both Houses of the State Legislature can be done with discipline.
- Even in local contests, non-Democrats must figure out how to put forward a single candidate rather than handing the election to Democrats due to splitting the vote.
- As the map below shows, there continues to be a divide between Coastal California and Inland California.
Second update: just after 9 p.m.
Voter turnout: 49.0%
|Ballots Cast||Vote Center Ballots||Mail-in Ballots||Registered Voters|
|464,164 (52.59%)||418,362 (47.41%)|
Larry Elder leads with 57.63%. None of the other candidates broke into double digits.
With 32.8% of precincts partially reporting, voter turnout was 41.6%.
|5,840,283 (63.9%)||3,297,145 (36.1%)|
Larry Elder leads with 46.9%. None of the other candidates broke into double digits.