Seal of the Governor and photo of Gavin Newsom courtesy of the Office of the Governor of the State of California.

Morning-after results in the Gavin Newsom recall election

As expected, Gavin Newsom seems to have defeated the recall attempt. (See the latest numbers below the map.) The canvass does not officially end until the election is certified on October 22, but recall supporters are unlikely to prevail at this point.

Notes:

  • Those opposing Gov. Newsom overwhelmingly voted for Larry Elder. The opposition vote did not split across many opposition candidates.
  • By an almost 6 to 1 ratio, voters overwhelmingly used mail-in rather than vote in person.
  • Not even “conservative stronghold” Orange County voted to recall Newsom, though it wasn’t a blowout.
  • Results from the recall election should provide material for thought to strategists for next year’s elections.
  • Non-Democrats will continue to face impossible odds in statewide office. They should concentrate their efforts locally, to preserve what is already in hand, recover what was lost, and secure further gains. Chipping away at the supermajority held by Democrats in both Houses of the State Legislature can be done with discipline.
  • Even in local contests, non-Democrats must figure out how to put forward a single candidate rather than handing the election to Democrats due to splitting the vote.
  • As the map below shows, there continues to be a divide between Coastal California and Inland California.
Results of the September 14, 2021 recall election by county. Graphic courtesy of the California Secretary of State.
Results of the September 14, 2021 recall election by county. Graphic courtesy of the California Secretary of State.

Second update: just after 9 p.m.

Orange County

Voter turnout: 49.0%

Ballots Cast Vote Center Ballots Mail-in Ballots Registered Voters
885,145 129,847 755,298 1,807,081

Recall question

No Yes
464,164 (52.59%) 418,362 (47.41%)

Replacement candidates

Larry Elder leads with 57.63%. None of the other candidates broke into double digits.


Statewide

With 32.8% of precincts partially reporting, voter turnout was 41.6%.

Recall question

No Yes
5,840,283 (63.9%) 3,297,145 (36.1%)

Replacement candidates

Larry Elder leads with 46.9%. None of the other candidates broke into double digits.

4 Comments

  1. There is a missing posting in the OCB from a letter writer on the subject of Republicans do Recalls not Elections. MIA? This recall was a Republican pre-primary for 2022. There were about 4 million ballots that did not mark a preference for a replacement candidate. Elder’s vote in this recall is higher than he would do in a real primary. At least from the recall publicity he will get a few commercial spots to do and his old job back whatever that was.

    1. Author

      Vanessa,

      Thank you for reading Orange County Breeze, and for taking the time to comment on this article.

      We have not intentionally refrained from publishing a Letter to the Editor on that subject. We simply have not seen such a letter.

      If you know the person who wrote the letter, please encourage that person to re-submit the letter as an email to [email protected] with “LETTER TO THE EDITOR” in all caps as the email subject.

      I agree that the percentage of votes for this recall election is skewed because so many voters did not mark a selection for a replacement candidate.

      Again, thank you for reading Orange County Breeze.

      Shelley Henderson
      editor, Orange County Breeze

  2. The Larry Elder percentage is misleading because it ignores people who voted no and refused to vote for a replacement. His percentage of all those who voted in this election is 26% and not 46.9%.

    1. Author

      Frank,

      Thank you for reading Orange County Breeze, and taking the time to clarify this point.

      I should have said that Larry Elder received 46.9% of the votes for a replacement, but that many ballots were turned in without a vote for a replacement.

      Again, thank you for reading Orange County Breeze.

      Shelley Henderson
      editor, Orange County Breeze

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.