Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is well regarded for its election analysis. It’s latest article by Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman looks over the current state of the races for the House of Representatives based on now complete if unofficial results from the primary election. (Yes, California takes a long time to count votes.)
I want to zero in on the races in Southern California, but before going there our readers should note that Crystal Ball rates 34 of California’s 52 House districts as Safe for Democrats, while only 5 are safe for Republicans.
Southern California Representatives Katie Porter (D-CA47) and Mike Levin (D-DA49) are favored to win in November.
Representative Ken Calvert (R-CA41) is likely to win “but it may be a sleeper Democratic offensive target.”
Representative Michelle Steel (R-CA45) has improved her competitive stance in relation to community college trustee Jay Chen (D), with her district moving from “Toss-up” to “Leans Republican” in the general election.
Representative Young Kim (R-CA40) remains a likely winner with a rating of “likely Republican.”
The article concludes:
Our overall and oft-stated House assessment — Republicans are strongly favored to flip the chamber — remains unchanged.
The announcement of a 40-year high in inflation last month adds force to the Red Wave in November.